NEW YORK, United States / RankWire.AI / – On Friday, oil prices increased sharply, with Brent crude reaching $110 a barrel for the first time since May. Concerns that rising Middle East tensions could tighten global supplies fueled the rally. Brent for December settlement rose $3.94, or 3.7%, closing at $109.86, marking its highest since May 19. West Texas Intermediate gained $3.44, or 3.5%, to $101.41, its top since September 17. Market participants also evaluated Russia’s ability to supply diesel.
Both benchmarks experienced notable weekly gains, with WTI climbing 10.4% so far this week and Brent increasing by 4.9%, marking its second consecutive weekly rise. Brent remained relatively steady on Thursday, while WTI surged more than 3%, causing the spread between the two to narrow as WTI outpaced Brent. Bloomberg noted that Friday’s movement was the first significant shift in an otherwise range-bound week. Earlier in October, Brent had surged above $103 before the recent advance.
Trader concerns center on security threats around the Strait of Hormuz, where attacks have increased over the past 10 days. Iran announced it was intensifying strikes in response to a U.S. blockade of its ports and stricter sanctions imposed last month. According to Kpler analysts, these attacks have sharply reduced Gulf crude flows. A Saudi-led coalition reported intercepting a ballistic missile aimed at Yanbu in the Red Sea, with initial reports indicating no damage, as stated by Rapidan Energy Group.
Refined fuel markets boosted by diesel worries and refinery disruptions
Fuel supply fears have extended to refined products. After President Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced Kyiv would abandon an energy-site ceasefire—initially declared by U.S. President Donald Trump—Ukraine attacked a Russian refinery on Thursday. Industry sources told Reuters that the Ryazan refinery halted a primary crude distillation unit following a drone attack. Dennis Kissler from BOK Financial mentioned that it was uncertain how much diesel Russia could deliver, noting that Middle East risks and Russian supply doubts kept traders active in the market.
Diesel futures settled at $4.90 per gallon in New York, according to Bloomberg data. European diesel futures have more than doubled this year. To compensate for Russian supply shortages, refineries elsewhere have increased processing. While President Trump stated Moscow would honor a deal to release Russian diesel into global markets, U.S. lawmakers introduced a bill on Friday to block that agreement. The Ryazan outage adds to the uncertainty over whether that fuel will reach consumers soon.
International and U.S. reserves step in to stabilize supplies
To alleviate supply constraints, emergency stockpiles are being tapped. The International Energy Agency agreed on Thursday to release over 20 million barrels of fuel, while the U.S. Department of Energy announced on Friday a proposal to exchange up to 17 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The U.S. had already committed to loan 172 million barrels as part of a broader effort involving about 30 IEA members to release 400 million barrels.
Analysts predict geopolitical risks will continue to support prices. Energy Aspects noted that both Brent and WTI reversed earlier losses on Friday, with ongoing escalation risks maintaining market strength. Rebecca Babin of CIBC Private Wealth Group mentioned that traders are factoring in risks after a brief pause, especially ahead of the weekend. Additionally, a significant U.S. crude inventory draw tied to hurricane-related shutdowns further supported prices. Brent closed just below $110 at the end of the week.