TOKYO, Japan / ConSynSer / – In September, Japan experienced its 13th consecutive month of rising exports, yet a faster increase in imports resulted in a trade deficit of 536.6 billion yen. The Ministry of Finance‘s preliminary data indicated that exports grew 16.7% year on year to 10.9723 trillion yen, while imports climbed 18.9% to 11.5088 trillion yen. According to Xinhua News Agency, the deficit was approximately $3.4 billion.
The export growth was driven by strong demand for semiconductors and chip manufacturing equipment, with products related to artificial intelligence also supporting shipments, as reported by Xinhua. September marked Japan’s fifth consecutive month of trade deficits, although the gap significantly narrowed from 1.11 trillion yen in August. Import growth slowed from 28.0% in August, partly due to a decline in crude oil arrivals.
Energy prices continue to exert significant pressure on Japan’s trade balance. As Japan imports nearly all of its oil and relies on the Strait of Hormuz—disrupted by Middle East conflicts—importers have faced higher costs to secure shipments through alternative routes. Brent crude has risen from about $70 a barrel in February to roughly $110 a barrel.
Trade values hit record highs in first half of fiscal year
Japan’s trade deficit for the April-September period reached 2.81 trillion yen, approximately $17.8 billion, nearly double the figure from the previous year. Exports for this half increased by 18.4% to 63.5 trillion yen, while imports surged 20.4% to 66.3 trillion yen. Both totals marked record levels for Japan, reflecting vigorous trade activity amid rising energy costs.
The rise in oil prices has impacted various sectors such as plastics and shipping, yet exporters continue to benefit from global demand for chips and related equipment. Japan’s trade figures had previously reached records in July, when imports outpaced exports. The current data extend a year characterized by strong but uneven trade performance.
Market expectations for BOJ interest rate trajectory
A declining yen continues to elevate the cost of imported goods, with the US dollar trading around 150 yen. The Bank of Japan has been gradually raising interest rates, partly to support the yen, increasing its benchmark rate to 1.25% from 1.0% last month—its highest in 31 years. The policy board is scheduled to meet again next week.
With an inflation target of approximately 2%, analysts believe that oil prices are unlikely to decrease soon, which implies that import costs will remain high. The Ministry of Finance’s upcoming monthly report will reveal whether export growth driven by chips can keep pace with rising energy expenses. Japan’s trade outlook remains heavily influenced by fluctuations in global energy markets.