ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN / RankWire.AI / – Pakistan accounts for approximately 48% of the population living in extreme poverty across the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan region. The World Bank disclosed this figure in its October 2026 regional economic update, measuring poverty against the international threshold of $3 a day in 2021 purchasing power parity terms. Between 2018-19 and 2024-25, Pakistan’s poverty rate at that level increased by 6.4 percentage points, making it the primary contributor to extreme poverty within MENAAP.
Afghanistan, Syria, and Yemen collectively represent another 47% of people living below the $3 threshold across the region. Along with Pakistan, these three nations comprise roughly 95% of MENAAP’s extreme poor. Currently, the region hosts about 14% of the world’s population living in extreme poverty, with only Sub-Saharan Africa holding a larger share. MENAAP remains the only region where poverty levels surpass pre-pandemic figures and continue to grow.
In addition, Pakistan’s poverty situation worsened at the higher $4.20 daily income level used for lower-middle-income economies, with the share below this threshold rising by 3.2 percentage points from 2018-19 to 2024-25. The rate reached approximately 48% in 2024, compared to 44.7% in 2018. The regional assessment cited COVID-19, the 2022 floods, high inflation, currency depreciation, and prolonged economic adjustment as factors behind the country’s worsening poverty indicators.
Impact of economic shocks on poverty levels increases
A new household survey conducted earlier in 2026 led to a significant revision of regional poverty estimates, raising MENAAP’s 2024 extreme poverty rate from 11.8% to 14.4%. This revision added roughly 21 million people to the region’s total number of individuals living in extreme poverty. By September 2026, MENAAP was one of only two global regions with extreme poverty rates exceeding 5%, with Sub-Saharan Africa being the other.
While Pakistan’s economy has rebounded to positive growth, poverty indicators remain high. The latest projections estimate GDP growth at 3.7% for fiscal 2025-26 and 3.8% for fiscal 2026-27, with real GDP per capita expected to increase by 2.1% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. Inflation is forecasted at 7.1% for 2026 and 8.2% for 2027, meaning inflation in 2027 is expected to surpass that of 2026 despite continued economic expansion.
Changes in regional classification influence poverty comparisons
The 48% share also stems from a statistical reclassification that altered regional comparisons. In September 2025, the World Bank’s statistical system moved Pakistan and Afghanistan from South Asia into the MENAAP reporting group. Pakistan’s government stated that this administrative change did not affect the country’s geographic identity or income classification. Finance Minister adviser Khurram Schehzad explained that the new grouping influenced regional poverty totals because Pakistan’s large population was included in MENAAP calculations, thereby impacting how poverty shares are displayed regionally.
The October update also highlighted weaker economic conditions across MENAAP in 2026, projecting a regional contraction of 2.1% after a 3.3% growth in 2025. Several economies faced challenges due to conflict and disruptions in energy, logistics, and trade, though developing oil importers like Pakistan remained relatively resilient, with a forecasted growth of 4.3% in 2026. Rising food and energy costs continued to strain household purchasing power across numerous countries.